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Roy and Sopariwala, in their book published in March 2019, point out that at the national level, there are two constituencies that have voted for the winning party or coalition in all the elections since 1977, Valsad in Gujarat and West Delhi. In all the elections between 1974 to 2017, the candidate who won Kasganj belonged to the party or alliance that won the overall election in the state.Īfter sharing this information, Ravish humorously quipped that instead of carrying out exit polls throughout the state, the polling agencies could have just tried figuring out which way the people of Kasganj were going to vote. When it comes to assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Kasganj is a bellwether constituency, at least since 1974. Kasganj is what pollsters like to call a bellwether constituency.Īs Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala wrote in The Verdict-Decoding India’s Elections, bellwether constituencies are “constituencies that almost always vote the same way as the overall winner, and reflect the overall result for the State Assembly or the Lok Sabha,” which means that “the party or alliance that wins a bellwether constituency of the Lok Sabha is the same party or alliance that wins the overall Lok Sabha elections in the country.” While switching news channels, I settled on watching NDTV India and the anchor Ravish Kumar and the panel were soon talking about the constituency of Kasganj in Uttar Pradesh. Of course, in the first few hours, there is nothing really to report or analyze, for that matter, and a lot of that time needs to be filled with general banter.

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TV channels start reporting and analyzing election results from 6-7 in the morning on the day of the election results. To advertise in this newsletter, hit us up at 10 March morning















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